戦争が起こるとドル高になる?
ドルを動かすのは、通貨政策のほかに、「景気動向」や「経常収支」、「地政学リスク」があります。
「世界の警察」を自任していたアメリカは、世界各国の紛争に多かれ少なかれ関わってきました。
その為、世界のどこかで紛争が発生するたびにドルを中心にした為替が大きく動く傾向があります。
かつては「有事のドル買い」といわれ、紛争が起こるたびに比較的に信用の高いドルが買われ、ドル高になる傾向がありました。
しかし、近年、地政学リスクが高まったとき、「有事の円買い」「有事のスイスフラン買い」が目立つようになっています。
日本やスイスは紛争の影響を受けにくいという連想が動くからです。
とりわけ2001年の「9・11同時多発テロ」では、アメリカが直接の攻撃対象になったことで、ドルは下がりました。
通貨政策も為替を動かす
アメリカの通貨政策は歴史的にも為替を大きく動かしてきました。
1980年代は、レーガン大統領が「強いドル」政策を打ち出し、ドル高がつづきました。
しかし、ドル高の進行でアメリカの産業空洞化が問題化したため、今度はドル安政策(プラザ合意)が採られました。
初心者の方は、下記のキャッシュバックがあるFX会社での口座開設をお勧めします。
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